Electric Cars Poised To Capture Majority US Market Share By 2030

A Carnegie Mellon and Yale University study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has concluded that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to constitute a majority or near-majority of passenger cars by 2030.

The study attributes the shift in buyer sentiment towards BEVs to multiple factors, including the cost of batteries, which have dropped by a factor of ten between 2010 and 2021, as per the findings. Additionally, the average driving range has improved by 200 percent, while energy efficiency has grown by 15 percent, as per the study. An increase in BEV choices also contributed to the change in customer preferences.

The researchers also conducted a market simulation, which suggests that electric cars and SUVs would account for roughly half the market share by 2030, assuming widely available and comparable BEV offerings. They highlight that technological improvements are key to the wider adoption of electric vehicles.

When BEVs are offered alongside gasoline counterparts, they (BEVs) hold a greater chance of capturing half the market share by 2030, even if incentives are rolled back.

In terms of specific models, the study suggests that by 2030, consumers might prefer the Nissan Leaf to the Versa, the Mini Electric instead of the Mini Cooper hatchback, and the BMW i4 instead of the 4 Series Gran Coupe. Consumers are likely to have a balanced preference for models like the Hyundai Kona and Kona Electric, and the Volvo XC40 and XC40 Recharge.

The study’s consumer choice analysis factors in the willingness-to-pay [a premium] (WTP) estimate for cars. Current buyers’ WTP is between $6,600-12,000 for BEV counterparts of gasoline vehicles, depending on the make and model. By 2030, with projected improvements in range, costs, and technology, the WTP estimate for cars could fall between $5,300-8,000.

Here’s an excerpt from the study that indicates how consumer willingness to buy EVs is expected to shift:

Estimates of consumer willingness to pay for vehicle attributes show that any perceived disadvantages of BEVs relative to gasoline vehicles are often compensated by the BEV’s improved operating cost, acceleration, and fast-charging capabilities, particularly for BEVs with a longer range.

Do you resonate with these projections? Leave your thoughts in the comments.