Despite surging U.S. sales of electric vehicles, the market is cooling for some of the promising startups and legacy automakers that shot to the top of the EV charts last year, according to new registration data from Experian.
New EV registrations rose by a healthy 68 percent in the January-to-May period to a record 447,514 vehicles. But about half of the increase came from market leader Tesla, the data shows.
Hot EV brands from last year — including Ford, Kia and Lucid — are now cooling as Tesla continues to sell 6 of every 10 EVs in the U.S.
Additionally, those that entered the market with some fanfare, including Cadillac and Porsche, are near the bottom of the 25 brands appearing in the latest registration data.
Overall, EVs rose to a 7 percent share of the U.S. light-vehicle market in the first five months of the year from 4.6 percent a year earlier. But analysts see tougher days ahead as consumers balk at relatively high prices and interest rates.
Cox Automotive said last week that EV inventories reached a 100-day supply in late June — nearly double the industrywide level for vehicles regardless of fuel type. EV growth will continue but likely at a slower pace, Cox said.
“EV sales records will continue to be set and EV growth will continue to outpace overall industry growth, but the days of 75 percent year-over-year growth are in the rearview mirror,” Cox said. “The hard-growth days are ahead.”
The key issue remains affordability since EVs carry higher average prices than their gasoline-engine counterparts.
“While interest in EVs rapidly increases, the gap between consideration and sales remains wide,” Cox said in a midyear market report.
Experian registration data for January to May reflects the more difficult climate, especially for EV brands that grew rapidly last year but have failed to maintain the momentum.
Because not all automakers report their EV sales by model and region, including Tesla, new registration data serves as a reliable proxy to compare brands and identify trends.
One of last year’s best performers, the Ford Mustang Mach-E compact crossover, saw sales fall in the first five months of the year compared with the same period last year.
For full-year 2022, new Mustang Mach-E registrations grew by 50 percent to 38,469 from a year earlier. But in the first five months of 2023, they fell by 29 percent to 10,948. Ford reduced Mustang Mach-E prices earlier this year after Tesla slashed the sticker for its Model Y competitor.
Ford’s F-150 Lightning pickup, which launched last year, is still growing sales and remains the bestselling electric pickup in the U.S., according to Experian data. F-150 Lightning registrations rose to 8,800 in the January-to-May period compared with 361 in the same period last year when Ford was still ramping production.
As a brand, Ford grew its EV registrations by 30 percent through May and was the No. 3 EV brand after Tesla and Chevrolet, with 22,425. But its growth pace was well below the 68 percent number for the EV market as a whole this year and significantly behind its 2022 growth pace of 120 percent, Experian said.
Ford’s EV share in the January-to-May period fell to 5 percent from 6.5 percent a year earlier. The numbers include new registrations for Ford’s electric Transit van.
While the Mach-E qualifies for half the maximum federal tax incentive for purchases, or $3,750, Tesla’s Model Y qualifies for the full $7,500. Buyers may not be able to claim the full credit, depending on income limits and other factors.
Another hot EV brand last year, Kia, saw its fortunes flag in the first five months of this year. New registrations of its EV6 compact crossover dropped 29 percent to 6,780. Its smaller EV crossover, the Niro, saw registrations fall 27 percent to 4,425, Experian said.
For full-year 2022, Kia posted a 236 percent rise in EV registrations to 23,506. Kia’s EV share fell to 2.5 percent this year from 5.8 percent last year, based on five-month Experian data.
Like its Korean corporate sibling Hyundai, Kia lost access to the $7,500 federal tax incentive last year with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which requires North American assembly. Kia and Hyundai EVs are made in Korea.
Hyundai’s EV performance was better than Kia’s in the first five months of the year, according to Experian data. The Ioniq 5 compact crossover fell 3.4 percent to 10,406 while the smaller Kona EV crossover grew 190 percent to 3,943. The Ioniq 6 midsize sedan, new this year, had 1,824.
As a whole, Hyundai brand EV registrations grew 33 percent in the five-month period to 16,175. For full-year 2022, they grew 142 percent to 26,826. Hyundai’s EV share fell to 3.6 percent in the first five months this year compared with 4.6 percent for the same period in 2022.
Hyundai has been more aggressive than Kia in offering customers lease deals that incorporate a $7,500 federal EV discount. Under the tax rules, auto finance companies can claim the EV credit and pass it on to customers if they choose. Kia said in May it will lean more aggressively into EV leasing.
- Registrations for the Nissan Leaf hatchback fell 48 percent in the January-to-May period to 3,760. Nissan added a new model this year, the Ariya compact crossover, which posted 3,501 new registrations. But Nissan’s total EV registrations were nearly flat and its EV share fell to 1.6 percent in the five-month period this year compared with 2.7 percent in the year-earlier period.
- EV startup Lucid Motors saw its new registrations rise 234 percent to 2,758 in the first five months of the year, but the brand is running behind its 2023 forecast for 10,000 to 14,000 units of its sole model, the Air sedan. In separate data, Lucid reported that its second-quarter sales were flat compared with the first quarter at just over 1,400.
- Rivian Automotive, which makes luxury light trucks for consumers and a commercial delivery van for Amazon, saw registrations rise nearly sixfold in the first five months of the year for its consumer vehicles, the R1T pickup and R1S crossover, Experian data showed. The R1T had 6,013 registrations and the R1S had 5,897. Experian didn’t report the van data.
- Cadillac generated 1,893 registrations for its Lyriq midsize crossover compared to 40 in the five-month period last year. The Lyriq was seen as a credible competitor to the Tesla Model Y, the best-selling EV in the market, but Cadillac has fallen behind in its production plans. Cadillac was No. 19 in EV registrations out of 25 brands, Experian said.
- The GMC Hummer had 63 registrations through May compared with 222 for the same period last year. Vietnamese automaker VinFast, a newcomer to the U.S. market this year, had 128 registrations for its VF8 crossover.
- Porsche’s highly acclaimed Taycan sedan saw registrations fall 26 percent in the five-month period to 2,679. That compared with 5,335 registrations for the Tesla Model S sedan, which suffered its own 59 percent decrease.
Other German brands did better. BMW posted 14,787 new registrations in the first five months of the year for a nearly 15-fold increase over the same period last year. That put BMW on the No. 5 spot on the Experian EV list. More than 9,000 i4 hatchbacks and almost 5,000 iX crossovers led the way for BMW.
EV registrations grew 348 percent for Mercedes-Benz to 14,472 vehicles for the No. 6 spot on the Experian list. Registrations of EQS models more than doubled while two new entries combined to add more than 6,000 registrations. Volkswagen saw its numbers rise by 256 percent to 14,094 ID4 crossovers vehicles for the No. 7 spot.
Audi was No. 10 in new EV registrations for the five-month period with 8,285 and a 25 percent increase over the year-earlier period, Experian said.