Hydrogen fuel cell and battery- electric vehicles are companions, not opponents.
The technologies should be considered complementary rather competitive, experts following the transition to a zero-emission future say. While they can overlap, fuel cell and BEVs will mainly fill different transportation niches.
Most expect hydrogen to be a replacement in large vehicles, such as heavy-duty trucks, that currently use diesel fuel rather than gasoline.
The industry is headed toward an inflection point where hydrogen will near price parity with diesel, said Ryan Harty, leader of Honda’s sustainability development division in North America.
Honda’s next-generation fuel cells that power medium- and heavy-duty vehicles will be cost competitive with diesel engines late this decade, he said.
Most drivers of gasoline-powered vehicles will eventually be able to replace them with battery-electric offerings. But many diesel drivers could find that hydrogen-powered vehicles are a better fit because they have a longer range, don’t carry the weight of batteries and refuel faster than BEVs.
The 2022 Toyota Mirai fuel cell vehicle, for example, can drive more than 400 miles when starting with full tanks and takes just five minutes to refill. The 2022 Hyundai Nexo range is more than 350 miles, according to EPA estimates. That compares with 2022 light-duty BEVs, the most recent model year with available data, which offer a median range of 257 miles, according to the Department of Energy. (Some, such as the Lucid Air, have ranges double that.)
Most BEVs take about 30 minutes to recharge on a fast charger and even longer on slower chargers at home or work. Still, battery-electric vehicles are advancing quickly, with consumer discounts and expanded charging infrastructure to support them. The infrastructure for hydrogen-powered vehicles lags far behind.
There are only 57 filling stations in the U.S. compared with more than 50,000 public BEV charging stations, plus hundreds of thousands of home chargers.
Automaker product plans, dealership renovations and federal charging investment show that BEVs are the future of the light-vehicle segment. But with larger vehicles, Brian Collie, global leader of the automotive and mobility practice at Boston Consulting Group, expects a combination of fuel systems.
“In light vehicles, we’re past the point of no return with battery-electric,” he said. “I think in over-the-road, you’re going to see fuel cell, battery-electric, diesel live alongside each other for years to come.”
Fuel cells will become a viable diesel commercial vehicle replacement technology well before they will for passenger vehicles.
“There is simply not enough fuel cell system production capability or sufficient refueling infrastructure,” said Darragh Punch, senior research analyst for North America automotive powertrain and compliance at S&P Global Mobility.
Commercial vehicles will need fewer filling stations — mostly along interstates. Heavy trucks use so much fuel that small numbers of trucks using a station daily can make it profitable, experts say. It would take hundreds of light vehicles to make a station profitable. Moreover, commercial vehicles often travel set routes and return to a central depot where they can refuel at a private pump.
Still, the BEV-fuel cell divide isn’t as clear-cut as some assume, said Jacquelyn Birdsall, senior engineering manager for Toyota’s fuel cell integration group. Customers should choose technology that fits their lifestyle and price range, she said. Birdsall doesn’t have a designated area to charge a battery-electric vehicle at home in Los Angeles. But she drives a Mirai and can access multiple hydrogen filling stations within a mile.
Birdsall’s location allows her to drive a fuel cell vehicle — the nation’s only public hydrogen stations are in California — but her experience demonstrates that consumers have various use cases.
“Sometimes I think we get lost in, ‘Is it going to be battery? Is it going to be hydrogen? And what’s better?’ ” she said. “What we’re trying to do here is decarbonize as quickly as possible.”
Fuel cell vehicles are part of the nation’s plan to decarbonize, though they haven’t been as prominent a focus as battery-electric vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy wants to jump-start hydrogen production by spending $7 billion allocated from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to create six to 10 clean hydrogen regional hubs. The agency said it hopes the hubs can help lower the cost of green hydrogen to $1 per kilogram a decade from now.
The cost of hydrogen in California, where it is sold for passenger vehicles, ranges from $12 to $16 per kilogram, according to S&P Global Mobility. In other regions, the price can be higher.
But even before infrastructure is built out, automakers have a duty to advance the technology, Honda’s Harty said.
“It’s about leadership and envisioning the future,” Harty said. “And then being there to support the development of that future such that we can deliver to the market high quantities of fuel cell vehicles.”