SHANGHAI, China — Mercedes boss Toto Wolff believes Max Verstappen could still leave Red Bull before the end of his contract due to factors that run deeper than which team has the fastest car.
Verstappen’s on-track dominance this year means he is already on course to secure a fourth consecutive title with Red Bull, but turmoil within the team at the start of the season led to speculation he could leave the world champions before his contract expires in 2028.
“There’s so many factors that play a role for a driver joining,” Wolff said. “Clearly when you look at it from the most rational point of view you can say well, that’s the quickest car in the hands of the quickest driver.
“But I don’t think that this is the only reason you stay where you are. I think, let’s say, for simple minds that might be the only reason why you stay in a car and that’s it.
“Maybe there is more depth to other people who consider other factors too and I think Max has depth.
“In that respect are we going to convince him? I don’t think it’s a matter of convincing.
“I think Max knows motor racing better than anyone and he will take decisions that he feels are good for him and I think a few factors play a role but he’s the one that’s going to trigger some more domino stones to fall afterwards.
“But everybody’s waiting for what he’s going to be doing.
“If I was Max, I would stay at Red Bull for 2025, but I’m not Max. It is the quickest car, but there are other factors.”
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Speculation Verstappen could leave Red Bull arose earlier this year after allegations of misconduct were made against team boss Christian Horner by a female employee — allegations he was later cleared of following an independent investigation.
The public nature of the story stoked divisions within the team, with Verstappen’s father Jos publicly questioned Horner’s position, while the role of Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko, a close ally of the Verstappens, was also being questioned.
In the past month the matter has created fewer headlines, but when Verstappen was asked about his future at Red Bull beyond 2024 on Thursday, he again referenced the need for a “peaceful environment” at the team.
“After 2021, I signed a long deal with the team, and the only thing that I always said from the beginning is that we want to have a quiet and peaceful environment,” he said.
“Lately we have been talking about the car, so I am very happy about that, that we are talking about the performance of the car.
“That’s how it should be, of course, and as long as I am happy with the team, there has never been a reason to leave.”
When it was put to Horner that Wolff — a long-standing and at times fierce rival of the Red Bull boss — had hinted at Verstappen leaving, he replied: “I’ve got to think carefully what I say here…
“It’s not about pieces of paper at the end of the day, we know he has a contract to the end of 2028. It’s about how he feels in the team and the relationship he has in the team and the way he’s performing.
“I don’t think Toto’s problems are his drivers. I think he’s probably got other elements he needs to be focusing on rather than focusing on drivers that are unavailable.”
Asked if he wanted Verstappen to definitively commit his future to the team, Horner added: “Well I don’t know how many more times he needs to say it! He’s said it numerous times.
“Look, I’m not going to get drawn in. Sometimes it’s just designed to create noise.
“We’ve moved today ahead of the amount of races that Mercedes have won in the modern era. So the team’s in form, why on earth would you want to leave this team?
“Mercedes are the third team behind their customers at the moment, so I think [Toto’s] time would perhaps be better spent focusing on the team rather than the driver market.”
While Mercedes has not been close to Red Bull’s level since the introduction of new technical regulations in 2022, a new set of engine regulations in 2026 has the potential to upset the order once more.
For the first time in its history, Red Bull will be manufacturing its own power units in 2026 while Mercedes can point to its dominance after the last engine regulation change in 2014 as proof of its ability to adapt to change.
But Wolff said he has no plans to try to lure Verstappen away with promises of a faster car in 2026.
“I don’t think anyone can sell anything to Max, Jos and Raymond [Vermeulen],” Wolff added. “Their combined understanding of motorsport, whether you sell well or not is not going to change anything.
“It is a question of where they feel the future is best for them, considering a lot of factors. We are in a very good position for 2026.
“We are ambitious with the targets we have set ourselves for the power unit, for the batteries, for the fuel, and I think if we are able to produce a decent chassis we are a good value proposition. But who knows.”