DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — It is time for the 65th running of the Daytona 500, NASCAR‘s biggest event on its biggest stage, kicking off what many believe could be one of the sport’s biggest seasons. Much like Sunday’s Super Bowl, though, we are well aware that many people will tune into this weekend’s Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing who won’t watch another race this year. They may not know the difference between a lug nut and a walnut. Perhaps you are one of those people. Or perhaps you are currently reading this while dressed in your Chase Elliott pajamas and tucked into your Jimmie Johnson bed sheets.
No matter how much you do or don’t know about NASCAR, the following Daytona 500 preview is for everyone. Feel free to print it out, keep a cheat sheet in your pocket and randomly blurt out fact and figures to impress your friends as you watch the Great American Race.
Five favorites to win the Daytona 500
According to the wise guys in the desert, the consensus top picks are three-time Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin (+1100 via Caesars), followed by a five-pack of drivers at +1200, including Ryan Blaney, who should have won this race a year ago, Joey Logano, who won the first of Thursday night’s Duel 150s, Kyle Busch and Elliott.
Kyle Larson is also listed in that group, but we’re not counting him. It’s easily the most curious inclusion. Larson has won Cup races on every type of track except for “plate races” at Daytona and Talladega, places that he has openly admitted he can’t stand and simply tolerates.
The next five to keep an eye on
Bubba Wallace has made five Daytona 500 starts and finished second twice, and the first of his two career Cup Series wins came at Talladega, Daytona’s sister superspeedway, in 2021. Austin Cindric, who shocked Wallace and the rest of the world by winning last year’s Daytona 500 as a rookie, nearly won his Duel 150 on Thursday night and will start his 500 title defense from the third row.
There is much buzz in the garage about Ross Chastain, whom you know from his Hail Melon move at Martinsville Speedway last fall, although he hasn’t made a lot of noise during Speedweek other than announcing a big contract extension with Trackhouse Racing.
There is a temptation to include Alex Bowman on this list, who has started a record six Daytona 500s from the front row, but the last driver to this race from the front row was pole sitter Dale Jarrett in 2000. Bowman was in first grade.
Brad Keselowski is behind the wheel of a Ford, a widely accepted advantage, and finished fourth in his Duel 150. Speaking of the future NASCAR Hall of Famer …
Five legends who’ve somehow never won the Daytona 500
Martin Truex Jr.: 31 career wins, 0-for-18 in Daytona 500. Best finish: 2nd, 2016
Kyle Busch: 60 career wins, 0-for-17 in Daytona 500. Best finish: 2nd, 2019
Brad Keselowski: 35 career wins, 0-for-13 in Daytona 500. Best finish: 3rd, 2014
Kyle Larson: 19 career wins, 0-for-9 in Daytona 500. Best finish: 7th, 2016 and 2019
Chase Elliott: 18 career wins, 0-for-7 in Daytona 500. Best finish: 2nd, 2021
If it makes them feel any better, no one on this list is even close to the likes of Terry Labonte, who was 0-for-32, Ricky Rudd (0-for-29), Mark Martin (0-for-29) — Labonte, Rusty Wallace and Tony Stewart are a combined 0-for-64. Busch looked great in his Thursday night Duel 150 before he was wrecked out by contact with Daniel Suarez. While he was still spinning, Rowdy radioed to his new RCR team, “That was a Daytona 500-winning car.”
Five people who will make you say, ‘Wait, why are they at the Daytona 500?’
Johnson is back after retiring from full-time NASCAR racing in 2020, having spent the past two seasons in the IndyCar paddock. He’ll run a part-time schedule this season as a driver/owner, behind the wheel of the No. 84 Chevy of Legacy MC (Motor Club), after purchasing Richard Petty’s team.
Johnson has been coaching his pal Travis Pastrana — yes, the X Games and Nitro Circus demigod, who made it into his first Daytona 500. Joining them will be Conor Daly, whom you know from IndyCar and also his fourth-place finish in the 30th season of The Amazing Race. Keep an eye on Daly’s pit stall to catch a glimpse of Floyd Mayweather, who co-owns Daly’s car, which is No. 50 to honor his 50-0 record in the ring.
Also, Frankie Muniz is at the World Center of Racing. Yes, Malcolm! From the middle! He isn’t racing in the 500 but in Saturday’s ARCA (think Class AA baseball) event. He was fastest in practice on Thursday. A lot of us here are hoping that maybe we’ll get another surprising visit before the weekend is up — Frankie’s TV dad, Bryan Cranston. If you saw how Walter White whipped that RV around running from the police, perhaps he should enter a car in the ARCA race, too.
You’re in @TravisPastrana! #BuschLightPole | #DAYTONA500 pic.twitter.com/3hcaul572y
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 16, 2023
Five facts to shout out to make you seem like you are really dialed in to Daytona
“Hey, I think this track surface has really developed a lot of character!” Daytona International Speedway was repaved after a literal pothole showed up in the middle of the track during the 2010 Daytona 500, which was still using the asphalt that NASCAR founder Bill France laid down in 1959.
“Hey, I think these new Chevy noses are really working!” When the Next Gen car was rolled out one year ago, the real character in each different make — Chevy, Toyota and Ford — was found in their nose piece designs. Problem was that when the Chevys tried to team up in the aerodynamic draft, their cool-looking pointy noses acted like a cow catcher on a train and punted cars out of the way instead of pushing them. This year the Camaro has a flatter front face, and during the Duel 150s, it looked like it was already playing much nicer with others.
“Hey, that’s seven minutes! They’re gonna have to pack it up!” NASCAR’s Damaged Vehicle Policy had previously stated that cars being worked on by teams on pit road had six minutes to get back on the racetrack or be eliminated. During the playoffs last year that was expanded to ten minutes, which was too long. The compromise this season is going to seven minutes.
“Hey! Denny Hamlin can make history!” If Hamlin wins his fourth Daytona 500, he will move out of a tie with three other drivers (Jarrett, Jeff Gordon and Bobby Allison) for third place on the all-time victories list and into a tie for second with Cale Yarborough. The leader is His Royal Fastness Richard Petty with seven.
“Hey! It’s Tiffany Haddish!” It’s true. The Emmy winner will climb atop the flag stand and wave the green flag over the start of the race. I have no idea if she is a car person, but she did graduate from El Camino Real High School.
Five betting picks that have our attention
Ryan Blaney to win (+1200): The Force is strong with this Star Wars fanatic, and by force I mean aero push. Yes, a pair of Hendrick Motorsports Chevys are on the front row, but in the garage, the buzz is about the Fords on race day. Blaney and his Ford should have won this race a year ago and in 2018, when he led 118 laps. He finished second in the Daytona 500 in 2017 and 2020 and won the 400-miler in August 2021. He’s also a two-time Talladega victor and finished second in the last superspeedway race these cars have run, finishing 0.06 seconds behind Elliott at Talladega in October. Dude is fast, he is smart and if he can avoid the Big One (he’s crashed out at Daytona five times) then he is almost guaranteed to be in the battle for the win when the white flag is shown. — Ryan McGee
Chase Elliott to win (+1200): Elliott has yet to break through at Daytona, but he has knocked on the door a lot — especially lately. Elliott has finished in the top 10 in four of the past five races at the track, including a pair of runner-ups, and he’s been a staple at the front of the field. In August 2021, he led 36 laps en route to an eighth-place finish. In the 2021 Daytona 500, he ran inside the top 15 for 99.5% of the laps run and nearly snuck by Michael McDowell for the win when chaos erupted on the last lap. Hendrick Motorsports has had lots of speed in the Daytona 500, but hasn’t had a winner since 2014. Look for Elliott to emerge as the organization’s best chance on Sunday. — Scott Symmes
Jimmie Johnson to win (+4000): We can’t make superspeedway predictions without at least one long shot. If you missed the news, Johnson is back in NASCAR on a part-time basis this season. The seven-time Cup champion has been in victory lane at Daytona seven times, including a pair of Daytona 500 victories (2006 and 2013). His track record in this sport and at this track speaks for itself, so even without the backing of Hendrick Motorsports, Johnson is an intriguing play at 40-1. — Mike Clay
Michael McDowell to finish top five (+400): If you are a casual NASCAR fan, someone who only watches the Daytona 500, then you’ve probably never heard of the guy they call McDriver. Or you might think he’s a superstar. Throughout 15 years in the Cup Series, McDowell has earned only seven top-five finishes … and all but one of those have come at Daytona and Talladega. That includes a fifth-place run in the 2019 Daytona 500, followed up by a win two years later. It’s his only career victory, and he backed that up with a seventh-place finish one year ago. Mac spends countless hours in the Ford simulator and watching film paired with onboard data, for no reason other than to win one race, the Daytona 500. It would behoove us all to believe he can totally do it again. — McGee
Aric Almirola to win (+3500): Almirola probably feels overdue. Last year, he finished fifth. Two years ago, Almirola had a car strong enough to win one of the 150-mile duels, but his 500 ended in heartbreak when he was taken out in a crash on Lap 15. In 2018, he was a half lap from winning before being spun by eventual winner Austin Dillon. Almirola has two Cup wins on superspeedways and 13 combined top-10s at Daytona and Talladega, so he does have a track record of success. On Sunday, he should have the equipment — and the motivation — to capture his biggest win yet. — Symmes