Estimated Tesla Order Backlog Stabilized: 54,000 On August 16, 2023

The estimated Tesla global electric car order backlog seems to be stabilizing above 50,000 units in the past few months, down from around 100,000 in the first quarter.

We find this metric to be an interesting tool to better understand the relationship between supply and demand.

According to Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike / Twitter), an invaluable source for Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated global order backlog as of August 16, 2023, was roughly 54,000 units. That’s the same number as on July 31. The estimated number varies between 49,000 and 60,000 since mid-June.

The numbers are based on carefully tracked Tesla-related stats (production volume, average wait times for each model/trim), as shown in the attached tweet.

The volume corresponds to about 18 days of manufacturing capacity, which appears to be a stable level as well.

We guess that Tesla does not want to go below 50,000 and about two weeks of production capacity, simply because it would be not optimal from the logistics perspective. To attract more orders and match increasing capacity, the company has to consider price changes or improve the products.

The second half of the year will be very interesting because the plant upgrades in Q3 are expected to limit production, while the newly introduced upgraded Model 3 might spark a new wave of orders. Those things might be seen in the stats in about a month.

For reference, here are the numbers for previous periods (wait times):

August 16, 2023: 54,000 (18 days)
July 31, 2023: 54,000 (18 days)
July 16, 2023: 60,000 (18 days)
June 30, 2023: 49,000 (17 days)
June 19, 2023: 59,000 (18 days)
May 31, 2023: 75,000 (22 days)
May 16, 2023: 83,000 (23 days)
April 30, 2023: 68,000 (21 days)
April 15, 2023: 72,000 (22 days)
March 31, 2023: 102,000 (28 days)
March 16, 2023: 103,000 (29 days)
February 28, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
February 15, 2023: 106,000 (30 days)
January 31, 2023: 87,000 (26 days)
January 15, 2023: 107,000 (30 days)
December 31, 2022: 74,000 (23 days)
December 8, 2022: 163,000 (40 days)
November 30, 2022: 190,000 (44 days)
October: 31, 2022: 285,000
September 30, 2022: 299,000
August 31, 2022: 385,000
March-July, 2022: around 470,000
January-February, 2022: less than 400,000

In terms of particular markets, the balance between supply and demand remains marked “red” (considered too low) for all major markets (United States, Europe, and China).

The shortest wait time for new cars is in the US and Canada – 14 days (although it was 11 two weeks ago) for almost all models.

In Europe, the estimated order backlog and average wait times are longer (27 days). Interestingly, in China, it’s 17 days, but that’s the number before the new Model 3 was introduced (deliveries are expected in Q4).

Estimated order backlog (change in about two weeks):