Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk is expected to outline a series of initiatives to take the automaker into the future at Wednesday’s Investor Day event, including a new vehicle platform that could be used for a less-expensive entry-level model and for an autonomous robotaxi without human controls.
A possible $25,000 Tesla is the main news that industry analysts are looking for, given the automaker’s lack of a mainstream model. Musk is also likely to touch on a variety of new company initiatives to contribute to a zero-emissions future through Tesla’s automotive, battery and solar businesses, analysts believe.
More detail on how Tesla plans to increase its vehicle sales by 50 percent annually for the foreseeable future is also expected, even as the automaker works on advanced battery technology and developing humanoid robots to work in factories.
Tesla could also announce a new factory, or factories, with Mexico and Indonesia as possible sites. Indeed, on Tuesday, Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Tesla will build an assembly plant in Monterrey, Mexico, but there was no confirmation of the plan by either Tesla or Musk.
The automaker has much to discuss on Wednesday.
“Looking forward to Tesla Investor Day on March 1,” Musk wrote on Twitter this month. “By this, we mean the broadest definition of investor, as in the people & life of Earth. It will be a message of good hope & positivity for the future.” Musk said he will present Tesla’s “Master Plan 3” for “a fully sustainable energy future.”
The company’s previous master plans focused on building out its model lineup and then scaling up production.
For automotive analysts, much of the anticipation is around Tesla launching a mainstream vehicle that would expand the brand’s reach into a broader population of new-car buyers.
Tesla recently cut prices on its four-vehicle lineup in a sign of waning demand. Its current entry vehicle, the Model 3 sedan, starts at $44,630 with shipping. But analysts anticipate a future model closer to $25,000. Musk initially raised the possibility of Tesla producing an inexpensive car at the automaker’s Battery Day event in 2020, then backed off that idea early last year, saying the company’s focus was on building an autonomous taxi.
“My sense is that Tesla and Elon are feeling the pressure of competition more so than ever before,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.com.
Musk needs to present new and freshened Tesla models to overcome consumer resistance to the automaker’s aging designs and luxury pricing, Brauer said. “He’s got to move the needle — it’s time for some all-new Teslas.”
A disappointing outcome to Investor Day, Brauer said, would be more promises by Musk that he can’t keep. He has promised fully autonomous Teslas and big battery breakthroughs for years without delivering.
Tesla is working on a freshened version of the Model 3, according to industry forecasters, and recent spy photos show the sedan, with front and rear camouflage, testing on U.S. roads.
Further details on the update could come Wednesday.
In recent days, Musk posted video of the EV maker’s upcoming Cybertruck pickup at its engineering headquarters in California, and confirmed on Twitter that it will use a new steel alloy for its unpainted exterior panels.
The Cybertruck, first presented in 2019, will go into production this year. While the pickup has hundreds of thousands of reservations, Tesla has not updated its specifications or price. More details could come Wednesday.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a research report last week that Tesla has big plans to reduce costs through manufacturing improvements, making a $25,000 vehicle financially viable while cutting costs across its lineup.
“The big picture here is that Tesla has the opportunity to completely reinvent the car manufacturing process,” Jonas said in his Investor Day preview. “With a stated goal of a competitive offering at a $25,000 price point, Tesla will have to make significant progress from their current [cost per vehicle].”
The Tesla event will be held at the company’s factory in Austin, Texas, which doubles as its corporate headquarters.
The automaker’s coming third platform could also be used for a robotaxi without human controls. Musk has said Tesla will make such a product, but the company’s so-called Full Self-Driving software is currently designated as a Level 2 system, which is advanced driver assistance and not a Level 4 or Level 5 autonomous system.
Tesla’s previous two vehicle platforms were developed for the midsize Model S sedan and Model X crossover, and for the compact Model 3 and Model Y crossover.
The new platform Tesla has promised for Investor Day is expected to produce smaller vehicles. Musk has said it would cost Tesla about half as much to build as the one shared by the Model 3 and Y.
Pierre Ferragu, managing partner at New Street Research, is expecting a smaller Tesla, informally called the Model 2. Ferragu is bullish on Tesla and thinks a mainstream vehicle would help the automaker reach its big goals for sales growth.
“Model 2 is critical to the continued success of Tesla and we should learn a lot more this week about it,” Ferragu wrote in a Twitter post Sunday. He also presented a short analysis of what he expects from the new vehicle.
The Model 2, Ferragu wrote, should be 15 percent shorter and 30 percent lighter than the current Model 3, with a battery pack 25 percent smaller. It should be 37 percent less expensive to build, at about $22,000 per unit, and it should compete favorably with cars such as the Toyota Corolla.
Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, wrote on Twitter last week that he expects Tesla Investor Day to cover the third platform, a $25,000 model, the final design of the Cybertruck and the company’s development of its Optimus human robot, among other topics.